I decided to leave the names out of this post, since it is irrelevant which team I'm talking about(it isn't their fault who gets assigned to their games or how those games are called), and I don't feel like naming the official. Instead, I'll just call them Team X and Ref Y. It isn't about the names anyway, it's about the numbers.
Ref Y officiated 8 of Team X's games this season. In total, Team X got 58 powerplay opportunities in those 8 games, while their opponents got 28 powerplay opportunities. A difference for 30 opportunities.
In itself, that isn't that damning. But then I compared those 8 games to Team X's other 34 games. In those other 34 games, Team X had 195 powerplay opportunities, while their opponents had 179 opportunities. A difference of only 16 opportunities.
The outliers are interesting as well. Team X reached double digits in powerplay opportunities twice in the 8 games officiated by Ref Y, but only once in their other 34 games. Team X's opponents got 2 or fewer powerplay opportunities in 3 of the games officiated by Ref Y, but only once in the other 34 games.
I don't think this some sort of conspiracy for Team X. I don't even think this is something intentional on the part of Ref Y. I just think it looks odd that 65% of a team's advantage in total powerplay opportunities came in a certain 20% of their games. So the question I will ask is this: If you were a head coach and your team was playing Team X, would you want to see Ref Y be assigned to that game?
Ref Y officiated 8 of Team X's games this season. In total, Team X got 58 powerplay opportunities in those 8 games, while their opponents got 28 powerplay opportunities. A difference for 30 opportunities.
In itself, that isn't that damning. But then I compared those 8 games to Team X's other 34 games. In those other 34 games, Team X had 195 powerplay opportunities, while their opponents had 179 opportunities. A difference of only 16 opportunities.
The outliers are interesting as well. Team X reached double digits in powerplay opportunities twice in the 8 games officiated by Ref Y, but only once in their other 34 games. Team X's opponents got 2 or fewer powerplay opportunities in 3 of the games officiated by Ref Y, but only once in the other 34 games.
I don't think this some sort of conspiracy for Team X. I don't even think this is something intentional on the part of Ref Y. I just think it looks odd that 65% of a team's advantage in total powerplay opportunities came in a certain 20% of their games. So the question I will ask is this: If you were a head coach and your team was playing Team X, would you want to see Ref Y be assigned to that game?